The Indian rupee rallied against the dollar on Friday, tracking robust gains in domestic stocks and global risk assets. Hopes that Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates on Monday to kickstart domestic growth also supported the rupee, since waning confidence on the economy had been a major factor behind last month's falls to a record low by the local unit. Global risk factors will be key to the rupee's outlook, as Greek elections on Sunday will be followed by a Federal Reserve meeting that ends on Wednesday in which the U.S. central bank may opt for further U.S. monetary stimulus measures.
Major Market News –
    Rupee gains; awaits Greece, RBI outcome.
    India's forex reserves rise to $287.38 billion.
    Yuan stronger on euro hopes, weak US data.
    Euro holds firm on hopes of central bank action, soft US data.

USDINR –
USDINR consolidated in a very short range last week. It found support at the trend line coming from previous lows. If it breaks this support of 55.6000 then according to Fibonacci Retracements it may drop towards 23.6%     retracement level of 54.9000. While on higher side, 56.0000 is acting as crucial resistance for it above which 56.7800 will act as strong resistance for it.      

EURINR –
EURINR moved in a short range of 69.6600-70.4000 last week. It is expected to cross the resistance of 70.5000 in the coming week and may lead towards higher level of 71.1250. While on lower side, 69.5300 is seen as strong support below which it may drag towards 68.9000.

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES –
    U.K. Joins France in Boosting U.S. Treasury Holdings Amid European Crisis.
    Aussie, Kiwi Set for Weekly Gains Ahead of Fed, G-20.
    Mauritius Rupee Strengthens, Reverses Its Earlier Losses.

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Stock Tips, Commodity Tips

MCX Copper last week showed upward movement found resistance of trend line from its high on daily chart i.e. around 420 above this it looks bullish and may find next resistance around 428. It took reversal from the lower band of channel, now if it break support of 413 then some correction is expected towards 409-405.

S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in the MCX COPPER will be buy above 420, with the stop loss of 412 for the targets of 428.

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Crude Oil last week showed sideways movement found support around 4570 and resistance of 4775. Now if breaks this range bound movement then only we decide the trend for it. According to daily charts it looks weak and may break support of 4520 below this next support is seen around 4420. Above 4775 next hurdle is around 4860.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell below 4520 for the targets of 4425-4300. With stop loss of 4700.

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MCX SILVER last week showed sideways movement, on daily charts it moves in a channel pattern and consolidates around the lower band of channel. 53500 is seen as crucial support for it below this breakout is expected of channel and may find next support around 52500. On other hand if it break resistance of 55400 then it may touch upper band of channel i.e. around 57000.

S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in the MCX SILVER at this point of time is to sell below 53500. For the target of 52500, with stop loss of 55000.

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MCX GOLD last week showed bullish movements and consolidates around its higher level of 30300. This week we expect volatile movements due to some fundamental and global concerns. If it is able to break resistance level of 30300 then next resistance is seen around 30500. Below 29900 some correction is expected towards level of 29500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in the MCX GOLD is to buy above 30300. For the target of 30500, with stop loss of 30000.

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Global copper demand appears more robust than the market thought, as reflected by preliminary Chinese import statistics for May
Analyst with the German bank stated that, “While most market players had anticipated the third monthly decline in a row, a month-on-month increase of 11.9% was in fact reported.”
 “Thus Chinese copper imports actually increased by around 52% year-on-year in the first five months of the year. The sharp slowdown in Chinese demand growth expected of late has so far failed to materialize.”
Chinese copper imports rose to 419,741 metric tons last month. Further, Chinese demand is likely to pick up further in the coming months as authorities seek to stabilize the economy, not only with monetary measures but above also with looser fiscal policy and new infrastructural measures.
London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks have halved since October and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks are down 40% in just two months, meaning that “a picture emerges of a much tighter market situation for copper than many people expected.”

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US Crude Oil futures have slumped 17% this year to $82.70 per barrel aided by Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi’s statement that Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may need higher output quota.
Brent Crude Oil for July settlement slipped 25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $97.75 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange
However, US oil inventories have fallen the most in almost five months as refineries ramped up production to meet summer demand. Stockpiles dropped 1.5 million barrels, or 0.4 %, to 383.1 million in the seven days ended June 8, according to the median of seven analyst estimates before an Energy Department report tomorrow.
Stochastic and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

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The outlook for gold should become more apparent a week from now after weekend elections in Greece and a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
Weekend Greek elections and a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could mean some volatility for gold next week.
Much of the action Friday was oscillations based on stop-loss orders. “Stops to the upside and downside have been triggered within very short time frames (amid) market nervousness ahead of the Greek election result and the pending FOMC decision next week intensifies.
“Volume has been low and moves seem completely random as the market moves from highs to lows to highs. This time next week the picture for gold's short-term future should be clearer,”

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Nifty Future rallied in the previous session and was able to sustain above 5100 for most part of the session but faced resistance near 5150 and finally settled on a flat note. Inflation data is eyed in today’s session due to which volatile movements are expected. Overall, in the coming two sessions of this week 5170 is still seen as stiff resistance. While any fall below 5080 can be a weak sign for nifty below which it may slip towards 5020.


TREND: SIDEWAYS


SUPPORT : 5080 & 5020 RESISTANCE: 5170 & 5230

 

Major Market News –

Sensex flat with positive bias; Capital Goods, FMCG lead.
RCom unit gets approval for IPO in Singapore.
Ashok Leyland to raise Rs 7.5 bn for expansion.
Fortis diagnostic arm SRL to get Rs 370 cr PE investment.
Reliance Capital gets nod for AMC stake sale.

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GOLD AUG : UP

RESISTANCE 2 : 30300
RESISTANCE 1 : 30170
SUPPORT 1 : 29880
SUPPORT 2 : 29740

SILVER JULY. : SIDEWAYS

RESISTANCE2 : 56000
RESISTANCE1 : 55400
SUPPORT1 : 54500
SUPPORT2 : 54000

COPPER JUNE. : SIDEWAYS

RESISTANCE2 : 415
RESISTANCE1 : 412
SUPPORT1 : 406
SUPPORT2 : 404

CRUDE JUNE. : SIDEWAYS

RESISTANCE2 : 4730
RESISTANCE1 : 4685
SUPPORT1 : 4565
SUPPORT2 : 4520


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