Markets headed towards their resistance levels and showed positive biasness for the whole session. Nifty future found intraday support near to its 100 day EMA i.e. around 5225. For the coming session, if it is able to maintain above 5300 then on higher side it is expected to find resistance in the range of 5330-5380. If it is not able to hold above the level of 5250 then nifty will be trading in the weak zone and below 5230 it may plunge towards the support of 5170.

 

TREND: SIDEWAYS

SUPPORT: 5230 & 5170 RESISTANCE: 5330 & 5380

 

Major Market News-

Sensex trades up 98 points; TCS, DLF, Hero Moto rise.
Exide Industries Q4 profit falls 13%.
Oriental Bank of Commerce Q4 profit drops 20.6%.
Bank of India Q4 profit soars 93% to Rs 9.52 bn.
Vijaya Bank Q4 net up 235% YoY on lower provisioning.
Godrej Consumer Q4 cons net up 36% YoY at Rs 193 cr.
 

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GOLD JUNE : UP

 

RESISTANCE 2 : 29320

RESISTANCE 1 : 29220

SUPPORT 1 : 29000

SUPPORT 2 : 28870

 

SILVER MAY. : SIDEWAYS

 

RESISTANCE2 : 57200

RESISTANCE1 : 56500

SUPPORT1 : 55500

SUPPORT2 : 54800

 

COPPER JUNE. : UP

 

RESISTANCE2 : 451

RESISTANCE1 : 448

SUPPORT1 : 444

SUPPORT2 : 441

 

CRUDE MAY. : UP

 

RESISTANCE2 : 5580

RESISTANCE1 : 5540

SUPPORT1 : 5470

SUPPORT2 : 5440

 

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CHANA MAY : SIDEWAYS

 

RESISTANCE 2 : 3850

RESISTANCE 1 : 3800

SUPPORT 1 : 3720

SUPPORT 2 : 3660

 

 

JEERA MAY : SIDEWAYS

 

RESISTANCE 2 : 12580

RESISTANCE 1 : 12400

SUPPORT 1 : 12120

SUPPORT 2 : 11950

 

SOYABEAN MAY : UP

 

RESISTANCE 2 : 3670

RESISTANCE 1 : 3630

SUPPORT 1 : 3560

SUPPORT 2 : 3520

 

PEPPER MAY : DOWN

 

RESISTANCE 2 : 38100

RESISTANCE 1 : 37700

SUPPORT 1 : 37000

SUPPORT 2 : 36400

 

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The rupee posted a fourth consecutive week of falls after ending flat on Friday, as investors add more bearish bets on a local currency that is pricing in deep uncertainties about the country's economic and fiscal challenges which were recently highlighted by S&P, which downgraded India's outlook to negative last week, in the latest negative development impacting the currency. The weakening rupee has led to talk of potential intervention from the central bank, but traders believe that is unlikely given the country's modest foreign exchange reserves and tight liquidity conditions.

Major Market News –
Rupee falls; RBI intervention unlikely til it hits 54 to dollar.
Yen recoups losses after BOJ announcing 10 trln yen increase in bond buying .
Dollar rises after Bank of Japan monetary easing.
Sterling recovers from recession hit to 7-month dollar high.

USDINR –
USDINR has been moving in upward channel and bullish sentiments are still prevailing if it is able to cross the resistance level of 53.1225; then it may move towards the next key resistance of 53.8850.  On lower side, 52.0250 will act as strong support for it.    

EURINR –
EURINR surged on higher side after giving breakout from the triangle pattern last week. Now, it is near to the previous highs where it is expected to get resistance in the range of 70.3525-70.9250. If it sustains below the support of 69.5400 then it may further dip towards 68.7500.

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES –
Yen Gains Amid Central-Bank Speculation; Euro Weakens.
Pound Extends Winning Streak Versus Dollar to Longest Since 1992.
Asia Currencies Rise as U.S. Economic Recovery May Spur Exports.
Australia, N.Z. Dollars Gain as Central Banks Fuel Demand.

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MCX COPPER last week broke its resistance of 428 and showed upward movement, on last day of week it broke its weekly resistance of 442 now if it trades above this level then bullish trend is continuous towards the level of 455. On other hand if it breaks 438 then it may find next support around its previous resistance of 428.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in the MCX COPPER (JUNE)will be buy above 451.50, with the stop loss of 440 for the targets of 465.

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Crude Oil on weekly charts last week took support around its previous resistance i.e 5350 and faced resistance of 5520. On higher side 5520 is important level above this it may find next resistance of 5635. On lower side it find support around 5445 below this 5350 is seen as next support for it.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to buy above 5520 for the targets of 5635. With stop loss of 5400.
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On daily chart, MCX SILVER moves in downward channel last week it got resistance on upper band of channel. Now, if it gives closing above 56500 then we expect some upward movement in it but have to face resistance on 57750. Below 55000 it get support around lower band of channel i.e. 53500 if break this level then next support is seen around 51400.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in the MCX SILVER at this point of time is to buy above 56500. For the target of 57700, with stop loss of 55500.
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MCX GOLD last week broke its resistance of 28800 and continuously moved in upward trend. On daily charts it showed an upward channel and found resistance of upper trend line. Now if it is able to break 29200 then next resistance is around 29450 above this it is more bullish and finds resistance around 30000. Below 28940 some correction seen and may find support of 28800-28600.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in the MCX GOLD is to buy above 29220. For the target of 29430-30000, with stop loss of 28940.
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Copper supplies to fall to a 4 year low in relation to demand due to constant supply disruptions from major mines in the world. And this might in fact prove to be the catalyst of a huge upward movement. Copper mines are facing supply declines be it due to employee violence at Freeport McMoRan (which halted production) or low grades Rio Tinto and “All of these issues are going to keep the level of disruptions elevated. There are new projects hitting the market, but it’s a relatively disappointing outlook (for supply)”. As per calculations, copper inventories will be enough to meet just 2.7 weeks of demand by the end of 2012. The last time stocks-to-consumption ratio was below 2.7 was in 2008, when the ratio bottomed at 2.3. In 2011 stocks-to-consumption ratio was 3.2 and in 2010, it was 3.6. It would be worthwhile to note that copper prices bottomed around $3000/tonne in 2008 and has been on an uptrend ever since. LME copper prices are trading around $8250/tonne as of now, a more than 150% rise in value. And this happened when the stocks-to-consumption ratio also bottomed at 2.3. As such, projections do turn out to be true, one might see a massive upside movement in coming months.-it is expected copper markets to be in a deficit of 278,000 tonnes in 2012. The investment bank sees copper prices averaging $8600/tonne in Q2, 2012 before surging to $9300/tonne in Q4, 2012.
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While Iranian output has slipped by some 200,000bpd year-on-year, Iran’s gentle downwards slope has been more than made up by increases elsewhere. While there are all sorts of shades of grey in between, there are two extreme scenarios on Iranian output for the rest of the year.
* In one, the EU sanctions take effect and are maintained, and in addition Iran struggles to market the displaced crude, reducing net Iranian exports by as much as 0.8 mb/d. * At the other extreme, nuclear issues are settled swiftly and benignly or are at least put on ice, EU sanctions are eased and there is no significant reduction in Iranian net exports. A large proportion of the former scenario was priced in, but very little is currently priced in after the pull-back in prices. Should the latter scenario emerge, then one should expect some compensating reduction in Saudi Arabian output over the course of Q3. However, for the moment, the market mood remains highly relaxed and sideways remains the path of least resistance.
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